polynomial clogging: Six reasons this UN General Assembly is must-see TV

Think the annual September gathering of world leaders at the United Nations is a big snooze? Think again. In the past, it has produced memorable, even explosive, moments: President George W. Bush telling the global assembly in 2002 it risked ?irrelevance? if it didn't join him in confronting Iraq?s Saddam Hussein, or Venezuela?s Hugo Ch?vez, in 2006, likening the same Mr. Bush to the devil, or Libya's late Muammar Qaddafi demanding the UN move to Tripoli so he would not have to cross multiple time zones to attend meetings.

This year, the General Assembly debate convenes early Sept. 25 in a particularly somber mood. The Security Council is stuck in big power paralysis over the Syrian crisis to a degree unseen since the end of the cold war. Here are six key moments to watch for this time, led by a matchup of two presidential candidates from a major Security Council power. Guess which one?

1. Dueling Obama and Romney speeches

OK, so Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won?t have his moment at the UN podium ? at least not this year. But at just about the same time President Obama is addressing the General Assembly Tuesday morning, Mr. Romney will be speaking across Manhattan at the Clinton Global Initiative, former President Bill Clinton?s international development forum.

Mr. Obama?s star status at the UN was tarnished last year when, working through the Security Council, he opposed the Palestinians? bid for recognition. This year, expect Obama to laud Myanmar?s emergence from authoritarian rule and to recognize the ?work in progress? that are the countries of the Arab awakening. He?s likely to remind Syria?s embattled regime that its time is past, but a cautious president wanting no international surprises before November won?t be calling for international intervention in Syria?s civil war. Obama is also likely to remind the world that the window for resolving Iran?s nuclear challenge peacefully is closing.

A question buzzing around diplomatic circles: Will Obama offer a second take of his 2009 Cairo speech and address the frustrations ? showcased in recent anti-American violence ? that threaten to split Muslim countries from the 21st-century world?

2. Egypt's President Mohammed Morsi in the spotlight

Mr. Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated candidate who won Egypt?s first democratic election in June, could provide early clues about how the Islamist leaders who emerged from the Arab Spring intend to interact with the broader world. Morsi was slow to respond to the recent violence that started in Egypt over an American-made video that denigrates the prophet Mohammed. Will Morsi condemn the anti-American and anti-Western violence? And will he pursue the blistering condemnation of Syria?s Bashar al-Assad that he unveiled on a recent visit to Tehran ? and will he thus lay bare the deepening divide between Sunni and Shiite Muslims in the Middle East?

Something else to watch for: what Morsi says about 9/11. The Islamist leader has voiced doubts in the past about Al Qaeda?s role, so some analysts say his visit to New York, the site of the deadliest of the attacks, is a perfect opportunity for him to erase any doubts about his views of that tragic day.

3. A muzzled Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran?

In the past, President Ahmadinejad has seemed to relish his ability to send many delegations fleeing the General Assembly?s green auditorium with his inflammatory statements ? usually directed against Israel, but also targeting the US and the big-power-led Security Council. With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatening a military strike against Iran?s nuclear facilities, Mr. Ahmadinejad may opt to throw a few verbal bombs of his own. But some Iran experts, noting that Ahmadinejad is embroiled in a power struggle at home with supreme leader Ali Khamenei, wonder if he might tone down his rhetoric this year.

With Iran?s economy in free fall as a result of UN-approved international sanctions and with the Iranian leadership declaring (and participating in) the Syrian civil war as a battle between regional and international ?domineering powers,? don?t bet on it.

4. Myanmar's return to grace

Myanmar?s president, Thein Sein, will attend the General Assembly, marking the emergence of this Southeast Asian country (formerly known as Burma) from diplomatic isolation amid a significant but incomplete political reformation. Also in New York will be longtime dissident and Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, whose stops in Washington included a White House visit with another Nobel laureate, Barack Obama. Ms. Suu Kyi may be the belle of the UN ball, but as an elected member of Myanmar's parliament she may want to avoid showing up President Sein.

5. The Obama-Netanyahu nonmeeting

Obama speaks at the UN Tuesday morning, will address the Clinton Global initiative in the afternoon, and then return to Washington and the campaign. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not arrive in New York until Thursday because of the Yom Kippur holiday. That explains why the two leaders won?t meet in New York, according to the White House.

The real reason seems to lie elsewhere: Mr. Netanyahu had circulated his intention to press Obama to commit to setting ?red lines? for Iran?s nuclear program that, once crossed by Tehran, would trigger US military action. But Obama, who wants to give diplomacy more time and who believes that setting automatic triggers on Iran at this point would be counterproductive, wanted to avoid being painted into a corner by the Israeli leader. Netanyahu is expected to meet with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton instead, so watch for signs of any tension.

6. Palestinian statehood redux

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas last year attempted an end run around the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process by using the UN gathering to submit a formal petition for statehood to the Security Council. The move went nowhere, but not before infuriating the US (see ?painting into a corner? in previous item) for forcing Obama to take the UN stage to side with Israel and publicly state US opposition to something he had supported: Palestinian statehood.

This year the Palestinians are lowering their sights. They are expected to announce their intention to win UN ?observer state? status through the General Assembly by the end of the year.

Observer status ? it?s what the Vatican has at the UN ? does not confer voting rights, but it would endow the Palestinians with enhanced legal rights, such as the ability to pursue Israel in international courts. The US and Israel oppose the ?observer state? initiative, saying it would doom the peace process. But winning it requires only a majority vote from the 193-member General Assembly, which is largely pro-Palestinian. With some Palestinian leaders proclaiming that ?observer state? status would recognize Palestine as a ?country under occupation,? the words Mr. Abbas chooses to explain the initiative could turn out to be the assembly?s most explosive.

polynomial clogging

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Six reasons this UN General Assembly is must-see TV

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